Openbrief - an update service from Lupton Fawcett LLP

DAILY STOCKMARKET REPORT 15 August 2008

FTSE 100

5497.4, +48.8

Dow

11615.93, +82.97

FTSE 250

9134.4, +24.9

Nasdaq

2453.67, +25.05

FTSE All Share

2798.35, +22.15

S&P 500

1292.93, +7.1

Nikkei

13019.41, +62.61

Hang Seng

21125.16, -267.55

Oil (Crude)

$115.01

Gold

$810.7

Base Rate

5%

10 Yr Gilt

4.602%

£/$

1.855

£/€

1.2594


Markets

London - The FTSE 100 is 15.6 points higher at 5,513 this morning. The London Stock Exchange tops the risers board, gaining more than 3%, while Xstrata tops the fallers board, down almost 4%.

New York - US stocks finished higher yesterday as investors shrugged off weak economic data whilst embracing lower oil prices. The Labor Department said the July Consumer Price Index jumped at a 5.6% annual rate, the fastest annual inflation rate in 17 and a half years. Elsewhere, the number of Americans filing new claims for jobless benefits was above analysts expectations, suggesting weakness in the labour market.

The Dow Jones gained 82.97 points to close at 11,615.93, the S&P 500 rose 7.1 points to end at 1,292.93. The Nasdaq jumped 25.05 points to finish at 2,453.67.

Wal-Mart Stores finished just 0.4% higher following a mixed earnings report and a weak outlook for the future. The world’s largest retailer reported higher quarterly earnings and sales, citing the governemnt stimulus payments and shoppers needs to find a bargain amid a sluggish economy. But wwhile earnings beats expectations, sales fell short. The company also said that current qaurter earnings could miss forecasts as the effect of the government stimulus peters out.

The housing sector was lifted on comments from Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan. He told the Wall Street Journal he expects US house prices to stabilise in the first half of 2009. The Dow Jones home construction index gained 4.6% as a result. Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac jumped 7.7% and 7% respectively.

Financial stocks rebounded from their worst two day slide in six years. Bank of America was one of the top contrbutors to the Dow’s advance, with a gain of 4.6%, while JPMorgan Chase & Co added 2.4%.

US light crude oil for September delivery slipped $0.99 to settle at $115.01 a barrel.

COMEX gold for October delivery slipped $16.90 to settle at $810.70 an ounce.

Treasury prices finished higher, lowering the yield on the 10 year note to 3.89% from 3.93%

Tokyo - The Nikkei gained 62.61 points to close at 13,019.41 this morning. Shipping lines led stocks higher after freight rates soared the most in almost seven months. Central Japan Railway Co led train operators lower after Mizuho Securities Co cut its rating.

Hong Kong - The Hang Seng is currently 267.55 points lower at 21,125.16. Commodity producers are lower after oil and metal prices dropped. Aluminim Corp of China Ltd, the nation’s biggest producer of the metal, declined after Creit Suisse cut its 2008 profit estimate by 52%.

Economics

US Empire manufacturing (Aug) 13.30 bst

Empire manufacturing has been on the soft side, averaging -5.6 for the past three months. ISM manufacturing has been very close to 50 for each of these three months (exactly 50 in July), suggesting that the New York region has been underperforming somewhat. The Empire Index is expected to rise to -2 from -4.9.

US Net TIC flows (Jun) 14.00 bst

Not long term foreign purchases have been sizeable this year, averaging USD76bn per month through May. Foreign purchases have been fairly consistent for US Treasury, agency and corporate bonds, while purchases of US equities have slowed. In addition, US residents have also reduced their net purchases of foreign stocks and bonds, averaging only USD9bn per month so far this year. Net long term flows of USD75bn in June.

US Industrial production (Jul) 14.15 bst

ISM manufacturing has ranged between 48 and 51 so far this year (50 in July), consistent with little to no overall increase in manufacturing activity. Aggregate manufacturing hours worked decline by 0.1 percent in July, and manufacturing output is expected to be flat this month. Auto production could drop back after rising 5.4 percent in June. This is likely to offset increases in categories such as computers, machinery and apparel. Capacity utilisation may fall to 79.8 percent from 79.9 percent.

US University of Michigan confidence (Aug, prelim) 15.00 bst

University of Michigan confidence rose off of its lows in July, increasing to 61.2 from 56.4. Five year median inflation expectations fell to 3.2 percent from 3.4 percent, while the 1 year median was unchanged at 5.1 percent. Gasoline prices have fallen for the past four weeks, and stocks have risen about 6 percent from their mid July low. On the other hand, weekly ABC/Washington Post readings have been poor, falling to -49 in early August from -41 two weeks prior. Overall, Michigan sentiment is expected to have risen to 63 in August.

Corporate

British Airways said yesterday it had signed an agreement with American Airlines and Spain’s Iberia for a transatlantic tie-up, and will now file for anti-trust immunity in the United States. The UK carrier, which first said it was in talks with its American rival in April, said the three airlines would cooperate commercially on flights between the United States, Mexico and Canada and the European Union, Norway and Switzerland. It said the trio would file for anti-trust immunity from the U.S. Department of Transportation also on Thursday, and would notify regulators in the EU.


The above details are provided for information only and are not intended to be construed a solicitation for the sale or purchase of any particular investment nor as specific investment advice.

Dominic Key, Lupton Fawcett LLP

If you would like to make a comment to be published about this article, please do so below. Alternatively, if you would like to discuss this article with Dominic you can call him on 0113 280 2037 or write to him at dominic.key@luptonfawcett.com or visit http://www.luptonfawcett.com/amd/ for further details.
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